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Positive Growth in the
Semiconductor Market
By Ronald E.
Bishop, Bishop & Associates Inc.
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA)
reported November 2009 sales of $22.6 billion, a sequential increase of
3.7 percent, and a year-over-year increase of 8.5 percent. This was the
first positive year-over-year increase in billings in 2009, and the
ninth consecutive sequential increase.
Some of the factors that influenced this positive change are: The SIA
said that sales of personal computers continue to strengthen; the
release of Windows 7 in October energized the market; unit sales of
handsets should come in roughly even with 2008; and the real bright spot
was LCD TVs, which realized an increase of 25 to 30 percent in unit
sales in 2009.
Bishop & Associates Comments
November connector sales growth was up 13.8 percent compared to
semiconductor growth of 8.5 percent. This was the first time in 11
months that connectors outperformed semiconductors.
The SIA forecasts growth in 2010 of 10.2 percent. We are forecasting
connector growth at 11.3 percent. The following table compares forecasts
for the two components for 2010 and 2011.
Semiconductor – Connector Forecast
All semiconductor data in this article is
from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA).
The 2009 decline in sales makes for very easy comparisons throughout
2010. Modest improvements in world GDP growth will easily generate
double-digit sales growth.
If the world economy continues to improve in 2010, these forecasts could
turn out to be conservative. The big question is, will the world economy
limp along, or will the large government spending programs give traction
to the demand for electronic products that we are now experiencing?
Year-to-date November 2009 connector sales are down 26 percent, and
semiconductor sales are down 17.4 percent. The following table shows the
year-to-date percentage change in sales by geographic region for both
components.
Connectors vs. Semiconductors
Percentage Change in Year-Over-Year Sales
The following table compares connector and semiconductor monthly sales
performance since the downturn began in October 2008.
2008/2009 Downturn - Connectors vs. Semiconductors
Percentage Change in Sales (Year-Over-Year)
You will note that connector sales declined more than semiconductors in
every month except December 2008 and December 2009. The following graph
shows semiconductor sales (red line) declining less than connectors
(blue line).
2008/2009 Downturn: Connectors vs. Semiconductors
Percentage Change in Sales (Year-Over-Year)
In our opinion, connector demand will
remain uncertain until we are through the first half of 2010. Hiring,
construction, and housing must improve before we begin a robust
recovery.
If you would like to subscribe to the Connector Industry Forecast, go to
connectorindustry.com and select “Research Reports.” You may also
contact us at
bishop@bishopinc.com, or by calling 630.443.2702.
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