Bishop & Associates conducts a monthly survey on current connector prices and lead times to establish a base line to help forecast price and lead time trends. This is the connector price and lead time report for August 2014.
Every month, Bishop & Associates conducts a survey asking personnel to advise what they are experiencing with current connector prices and lead times. The objective of the survey is to establish a base line that will help forecast price and lead time trends. That is, are connector prices and lead times increasing, decreasing, or are they staying the same?
The long-term, historical pricing trend for connectors has been price erosion. Since 2010, that trend has been reversed. For the last four years (2010-2014), connector prices have been stable to increasing.
The following results are from the August 2014 price and lead time survey.
Price Analysis – Industry Price Environment Remains Positive
The Price Index for August is 3.151 and is projected to be 2.980 six months from now. An index above 3.0 means industry personnel believe prices will increase. Regardless of the small drop in the price index, we remain in a very stable price environment.
Industry personnel were asked, “In your opinion, what happened to connector prices in the previous six months, and what will happen during the next six months?” The results of the August survey are shown in the following table:
Change in Connector Prices
A price index above 3.000 means industry personnel believe prices have, or will, increase.
[Methodology: Increase a lot = 5; increase a little = 4; stay the same = 3; decrease a little = 2; decrease a lot = 1]
The following table displays the distribution of responses about pricing:
Distribution of Responses
The following graph provides a history of the price index since August 2013. We have now been in a firm price environment since 2010. However, you will note that the six-month index is 2.980, meaning industry personnel believe prices will decline slightly. This slightly negative outlook last occurred in February 2014 when the price index was 2.953.
Industry personnel were asked, “In your opinion, is lead time increasing, staying the same, or decreasing now and in six months from now?”
The following table provides the survey results, including distribution of responses:
Order Lead Times for Connectors
Lead times are 5.4 weeks now and forecast to remain the same, at 5.4, in six months.
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