An Air vs. Army Product Show Comparison
By Scott Clay. Bishop & Associates Inc.

I attended both of these recent military product show and I thought a personal comparison of the two might be interesting to CS.com readers who were unable to attend.

The National Business Aircraft Association Show (NBAA) is very large, occupying most of the North Hall at the Orlando (Florida) Convention Center. There are large displays of aircraft, helicopters, suppliers, and companies that operate within this market. One difference this year is that the daily show paper, distributed to attendees upon arrival, did not mention or display any news about “large orders” or “major commitments” for the major players in business aircraft. There was very little news from Boeing, Airbus, Gulfstream, Raytheon, Cessna, or other big names in the business aircraft sector. It has been my experience in the past that these publications are full of this kind of news.

Talking with many of the attendees, I found that current conditions in this market certainly seem to reflect the state of the economy. Orders for new airplanes and helicopters are off significantly. The Very Light Jet market that just a year ago was the darling of the industry shows major signs of dissolving into a very small segment. Several makers have gone out of business, and a main customer of Eclipse Aviation, which planned to make a major play for the “air taxi” market in the Southeast U.S., has closed its doors.

While many of the business development and sales groups at the major booths were trying to be upbeat and positive, it was apparent that the stock market decline has added to a very “down” market, and that there was little news or feeling that new orders were forthcoming. However, the segment of the industry that involves rebuilding, refurbishing, and upgrading current aircraft and avionics was very busy. Rather than spending large amounts on new platforms, it appears that companies see the wisdom of spending less money and they are investing in maintaining their existing fleets.

Another trend is that many companies are also touting their aircraft and rotorcraft for Homeland Security and law enforcement roles. They still see this as a market that has federal dollars available. Aircraft makers offer various options for their planes that can be used for patrol, surveillance, freight and cargo, and other missions.

The helicopter segment also seems to be stronger than general business aircraft. This may be because these companies have experienced growth—even in recent tight financial times—as the Federal Government doles out over $32 billion per year for Homeland Security. Attendance was good at NBAA, but the mood seemed even more subdued as the week went on and the stock market plunge continued.

The Association of the United States Army (AUSA) meeting in Washington, D.C. had record breaking attendance. All of the booth space was taken in the D.C. Convention Center, and there were over 400 exhibitors. The AUSA Winter meeting in February has already sold out, and as has the 2009 October Annual meeting. Large crowds, vast displays, and a large contingent of foreign military equipment makers were in attendance. It is obvious with just some cursory reading and discussion that Europe especially has made major cuts in defense spending and programs, and they see the opportunities will be in the U. S., no matter what the Wall Street situation is.

In my discussions and talks, there were no negative feelings expressed, nor even a major concern of “how is the market doing today?” The topic at this show is the products, the new ideas and technologies, the improved vehicles and systems, and the outlook for this year and the next several to come is positive. “How many do they think they will buy?” seemed to be the biggest question. Most seem to feel that even with some cuts in defense, this market sector is still going to have growth and at least a steady business level this year and for the years to come.

Booth activity at the show was very brisk. As mentioned, this year set a record with over 30,000 registered attendees. Every major U. S. defense company had a large display, with in some cases dozens of their people on duty to answer questions, make presentations, discuss potentials, and meet the many interested civilian and military people from all over the world. As with NBAA, many of these vendors also were showing their products in a “Homeland Security” venue, such as the UAV makers, robot vehicle makers, small arms and sighting people (non-lethal systems were especially popular), and even heavy vehicle makers offering disaster relief and aid versions. The focus of this show has gone well beyond the Army alone, and the people in attendance saw the latest in communications, surveillance equipment, and weaponry of all types. As the week passed, there seemed to be a marked contrast between the two shows.

Spending a few days immersed in these shows only reinforced my impression that the military sector will continue to be a good market for connector manufacturers. The trick is to create products that support both the companies that are ready to innovate and the ones that want to upgrade or maintain their existing equipment.

Scott Clay
Director Military & Aerospace, Bishop & Associates Inc.
Scott Clay has worked for more than 25 years in the connector and wiring systems markets. He has held various positions in field applications and marketing for Molex, Tyco, Methode, and ITT. For the past 15 years, Clay has focused on the military/aerospace sector, and five years ago formed his own company for consulting and application engineering. He has worked on design-in and electronics on F/A-18E/F, F-22, F-35, C-130J, C-5M, C-27, P-8, A-10, and numerous other aircraft. Some of the Navy programs Clay has participated in are SSN-774 Virginia class subs, CVX, DDG-1000, and the Littoral Combat Ship class. He has extensive expertise in land vehicle systems, and has worked closely with the worldwide locations of GD, BAE, AM General, and other key manufacturers. He is currently working on variations of MRAP, JLTV, upgrades for the Bradley fighting vehicle, M-88 recovery vehicle, FMTV, and other platforms in the wiring and systems areas, plus portions of the future combat systems.