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New
Connector Roadmap Helps Industry Navigate the Road Ahead
By John
MacWilliams, Bishop & Associates Inc.
Would you like to
know what lies ahead for the connector industry? The new 2009
Electronics Industry Technology Roadmap is the essential guide to the
road into the future. This report details major electronic component and
systems technology trends from 2009-2019. The 1,400-page report includes
a 43-page chapter on electronic connectors, detailing roadmap findings,
key trends and roadblocks, trends in regional markets,
 design,
manufacturing, environmental and product technologies. Product areas
include:
Later this year, look
for a Bishop Report analyzing the connector roadmap from a market
perspective and review a forecast of the impact this current downturn
will have on the industry for the next 10 years.
A Technology Document
As Casey Stengel would say, technology roadmaps tend to focus on
technological trends. This is accomplished very well in the iNEMI
roadmap. One excellent example of this is the very detailed
semiconductor roadmap. There is less discussion about markets and the
economy in these roadmaps, although some, like the connector and mass
data storage roadmaps, do include market forecast data. Some roadmaps
also discuss how global market forces and activities—such as
outsourcing—impact manufacturing infrastructures around the world.
Enter the 2009 Recession
The 2009
Roadmap is the culmination of almost two years of effort by over 1,000
people from throughout the industry. It was started and developed before
the recession.
Now, the current and evolving global downturn is going to impact most,
if not all, of the electronic industry segments detailed in the roadmap.
Industry market forecasts are being redone as we speak. And, due to the
unprecedented fiscal nature of this recession, no one knows for certain
how deep or long it will be. We are hoping for a modest recovery by
4Q09, with the whole year being down by double-digit percentages—just
shy of 15 percent in the current connector industry forecast. Many are
predicting it will take several years for markets to fully recover.
Impact on Roadmap?
Roadmaps, by their nature, are long-term documents, and transcend
short-term hiccups (although this “hiccup” may be more like the whooping
cough). This roadmap’s purpose is to serve as a planning tool for
industry stakeholders, and to identify technology opportunities and
roadblocks that lie ahead.
The 2009 recession is shaping up to be severe, and as such will impact
R&D, product development, and capital investment funding in many areas
of the electronics industry and its customer base. But the basic
findings of the roadmap are still operative, if not delayed by 1-2
years. It will be up to each user to determine how the current and
near-term market environment will impact their specific areas of
interest vis-vis the roadmap.
Here are some areas that will affect the connector industry as a result
of this downturn:
-
Market Impact.
Clearly, many markets see major suffering ahead. Connector’s largest
market, automotive, is one of them. All but mil-aero and medical
will be hit. Full recovery may take two to three years or more, with
some segments, such as automotive, forever changed.
-
Customer
Impact.
This downturn will continue previous trends toward industry
consolidation at the customer level. There will also be new
opportunities that will emerge in areas such as infrastructure,
solar energy, and electric vehicles.
-
Supply Chain
Issues.
Global suppliers of important materials and component parts are
coming under stress. This could be particularly acute in Asia, where
the infrastructure may be more fragile.
-
Pricing
Pressures.
This is bound to
increase in a down market. The good news is that material costs
should also decline.
-
Environmental
Constraints.
RoHS is nearly
complete, but there are a number of new initiatives, including
REACH, that could experience delays as suppliers resist or are
unable to meet deadlines.
-
Program
Delays.
These will occur
as customers pull in their horns. But, some players will use this
period to accelerate programs, to gain market share in the recovery.
Or, there are programs, such as hybrid vehicle/electric batteries,
that will not be curtailed due to market or regulatory mandates.
-
Technology
Impact.
In the 2001
recession, telecommunications was hard hit. Fiber optics was
affected, with some development programs cancelled. In this
recession, markets that depend on discretionary spending
(automotive, consumer electronics, mobile phone programs, and
personal computers, to name a few) will experience delays in new
programs, in addition to major declines in sales.
-
Technology
Pull-Through.
There are areas
of development in electronics that have such major “pop” that they
will navigate this downturn with less impact. Examples could include
smart phone technology, wireless infrastructure, solid-state flash
memory and other semiconductor initiatives. LCD displays, HDMI and
display port, IP television, and certain OEMs could be at the top of
their game.
What lies ahead?
Consult the iNEMI roadmap for guidance. The roadmap is now available for
ordering on CD at the iNEMI.org website. The cost is $250 in North
America, $325 for the rest of world. If your company is an iNEMI member,
the cost is $100 per copy.
 John MacWilliams
Senior Consultant and Analyst, Bishop & Associates Inc.
John MacWiIliams has been in the electronics industry for over
40 years. His main
areas of experience have included: U.S. competitiveness
programs, market research studies, authored articles, field
sales and management, product marketing management, strategic
marketing, new product planning, venture development,
advertising and media relations, direct sales, manufacturers
representative, distribution sales management, and international
marketing. MacWilliams has worked with AMP, Diceon Electronics,
TRW, and IRC in marketing management positions. Prior to joining
Bishop & Associates, MacWilliams served as the group director of
marketing and new product planning for AMP.
MacWilliams is
a graduate of Lehigh University, where he studied business
management and engineering. |
