The Past Decade: Industry’s Top Developments
What’s Next?
By John MacWilliams, Bishop & Associates Inc.

So far, it’s been an incredible century from a technological point of view. How do we determine which innovations of the last decade should make the top 10 list? The electronics industry is so dynamic that it is hard to pick individual winners. One thing is certain: Semiconductor technology is at the top of the heap, along with software and system design.

Connector technology follows, but connectors have their own degree of innovation at the intersection of mechanical and electrical design, materials, contact, and manufacturing technologies.

Picking the top 10 in any category is hard because there have been a mountain of new developments in the past decade. These have been led by massive innovation in consumer electronics. We are not 100 percent certain how all of this has happened, but here is a guess: 

1. The semiconductor industry targeted consumer electronics (in its broader definition) because, a) it represents the largest unit volume potential, and b) its former analog design regime was ripe for digital silicon development.

2. Industry globalization occurred in manufacturing and in demand. This set the stage for the commercialization of major developments with world market potential at required cost points.

3. The world economy expanded while coming out of the 2001 recession. Let’s not dwell on where we are now. Hopefully, things are improving, but consumer electronics is projected to be down another five to 10 percent in 2010.

4. We cannot underestimate China’s role in the 2002-2008 expansion period. Now, as wealth is created, China should become the world’s largest market.

Picking these winners is also interesting because it is subject to challenge—and should illicit response from our readers. Let us know what you think at atanghe@comcast.net. 

Let’s look at the top developments in segments:

Connector Technology Developments

Include:

1. Sweeping adoption of lead-free solder, halogen-free, and other environmental initiatives

2. Small form factor manufacturing and assembly at less than 0.4mm pitch

3. Advances in design, modeling, and simulation

4. Advances in electronic materials and molding

5. Non-precious and spot-plating processes

System Technology Developments

Include:

1. Moore’s Law: More than Moore semiconductor device and packaging developments

2. Wireless radio chip development

3. 4G wireless web

4. Flash memory developments

5. Flat panel display developments: LCD, OLED, LED, 3D

Emerging Technology Developments

Include:

1. Signal Integrity (Si) Beyond Moore—Next breakthrough in Si.

2. Green Technologies: Thin film solar, lithium ion batteries, electric motors, fuel cells, etc.

3. Nano materials, carbon nanotubes, and other technologies in mainstream applications

4. Solid state memory/hard disk technology

5. Virtual server/cloud computing

6. Optical silicon developments/on-off chip

7. Next-Generation Packaging: Beyond conventional PCBs, MEMS, NEMS, printed electronics, optical

8. Fully integrated System-in-Package technology

9. Next-Generation Wireless: 5G and beyond wireless telecommunications

Top 10 Hardware Developments                                                                 Why

Top 10 Connector Developments                                                               Why

What’s in our future?

World Economy: 2010 will be a year of recovery, and it has already started in the electronics market. However, a sustained recovery is still questionable due to the lasting effects of the financial market and housing meltdowns. Consumers are cautious and their spending habits will take time to rebound. Our gut tells us growth will be modest until 2011 or 2012, and there remains the possibility of further economic stress due to government debt and potential taxation—and private debt. There could also be a sustained drought in consumer spending based upon the psychological impact of 2008-2009.

Electronics Industry: We should fare better than almost any other industry, because electronics is now in the DNA of our economy and way of life. Semiconductor scaling is slowing, but we expect new developments in areas such as photolithography, system-on-chip, and system-in-package. Wireless technology and optics in Si will progress. Next-generation broadband Internet, 4-5G wireless, HDTV, and WWWeb2 will revolutionize new applications. The question will be: How fast can these technologies spread throughout our society in a sub-optimal fiscal environment?

Connector Industry: In equipment, the road ahead is bright, assuming connectors can continue to meet increasing speed, density, and other requirements—which they have always done. In the I/O world, there will be continued attempts to a) reduce legacy ports, b) streamline I/O choices, and c) move inexorably toward wireless. There are simply far too many cables on the desktop for this not to happen. Whether WUSB will be the answer remains to be seen.

Printed circuits are also ripe for change, and this will affect PC board connector applications. The PCB platform is venerable and won’t go away. But we expect to see developments in extended Si packaging as well as in electro-optics and printed electronics. It behooves the connector industry to stay abreast of these parallel, yet potentially disruptive, technology developments.

John MacWilliams
Senior Consultant and Analyst, Bishop & Associates Inc.
John MacWiIliams has been in the electronics industry for over 40 years. His main areas of experience have included: U.S. competitiveness programs, market research studies, authored articles, field sales and management, product marketing management, strategic marketing, new product planning, venture development, advertising and media relations, direct sales, manufacturers representative, distribution sales management, and international marketing. MacWilliams has worked with AMP, Diceon Electronics, TRW, and IRC in marketing management positions. Prior to joining Bishop & Associates, MacWilliams served as the group director of marketing and new product planning for AMP.

MacWilliams graduated from Lehigh University with degrees in business management and engineering.