HDTV Growth Engine May Pause in 2009
 But there is too much at stake to stop the train.
By John MacWilliams, Bishop & Associates Inc. 

High Definition TV (HDTV) is one of the most significant technological developments in recent history. It was also a major catalyst for explosive growth in flat panel displays. I/O connector content, including HDMI, has also benefited from these developments. But changes are ahead for this often dazzling product category.

 Current Economic Downturn
We hate to put a damper on things, but the current economic downturn is likely to hit the previously hot HDTV/LCD marketplace. The question is, how long and how deep will this downturn be, and how much will it impact HDTV? For the TV manufacturing industry, this may also bring additional price erosion, which has already hurt its return on investment in the high-capital-cost LCD panel business. This industry’s exposure to a downturn comes from several factors:

  • Consumer electronic purchases are, for the most part, discretionary.

  • Most consumers already have several TVs and can postpone buying another.

  • HDTVs are among the most expensive purchases consumers would make in 2009.

  • HDTV service, via cable or satellite, is not free.

HDTV originated in Europe, where standard televisions had higher resolution than models in the U.S. In the 1990s, the BBC and ITU, plus the Society of Motion Picture & Television Engineers (SMPTE) in the U.S., adopted the 16x9 format and other initiatives that led to modern HDTV. A wide number of individuals and organizations, including involved standards bodies, MIT, and other contributors, were part of HDTV’s development. I was fortunate enough to attend early SMPTE meetings where HDTV formats were hammered out—not without controversy between differing objectives in the motion picture and broadcast television industries.

HDTV was first implemented with existing CRT display technology, but quickly moved to flat panels. Plasma displays came first, and then the thin-film transistor liquid crystal displays (TFT LCD). It appears likely, given the tremendous investment in LCD panel production, that LCD and its various offshoots will be the long-term winner. CRT production is declining rapidly. Plasma technology is moving out of direct competition with LCDs, and moving to very large displays of 60 to 100 inches. Meanwhile, LCD is moving toward several new technologies, including organic light-emitting diodes (OLED) (see photo above) and 3D.

 Digital Convergence
This buzzword aptly describes the engine that is fueling HDTV growth—at a cost that consumers can afford, i.e. CMOS(Complimentary Metal Oxide Semiconductor)-integrated circuitry combined with flat-panel displays. This enables the digitization of TV signals so that digital semiconductor technology can be employed. With its low-cost IC content, it produces HDTV images that can be transmitted and manipulated in digital format. Some newer players, without a legacy analog mindset, were able to rapidly gain market share by focusing on this area.

 New Business Model
TV used to be a vertically integrated business, much like computers and other electronic equipment. With the advent of LCD displays came the creation of “gigabuck” flat panel producers who supply all comers with the expensive LCD display, much like Intel does with its micro-processors. This has allowed startups, and more familiar names like Dell and HP, to get into the HDTV business. The OEM designs the system–-or goes to an ODM, where a panel producer, such as LG-Philips or Samsung-Sony, supplies the display—and a contract manufacturer or ODM does the assembly.

 HDTV Market

·         If you’re having the plasma vs. LCD TV debate at your home, checkout this YouTube presentation. It may help you make the decision. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rzoFoy8W2dI&feature=PlayList&p=D8B29F6D6365240B&playnext=1&index=26

·         High Definition Format: Usually refers to 720 horizontal lines of video format resolution or more.

  • There are several OEM market segments in HDTV:

  • LDC Panel OEMs include LG-Philips, Sharp, Samsung, etc.

  • Panasonic, Hitachi, LG, and Samsung are among the plasma display makers.

  • Computer display OEMs are also making HDTV, such as Viewsonic, AOC, and others.

  • Many LCD TV OEMs exist, offering choice and competition.

  • Notebook and desktop computer OEMs are moving equipment toward multimedia.

  • Video projection/home theater system OEMs are now in the mix.
     

  • Panel and display manufacturers are not synonymous. Some panel producers supply their own OEM products, but many are not in the panel business.

  • Large panel LCD production facilities are expensive—investments are in the billions of dollars.

  • LCD panel availability has allowed a whole new crop of OEM producers to emerge.

  • JP developed the technology, and some would say Sony was slow on the uptake.

  • TW and KR now lead in panel manufacturing, with Samsung a major competitor to Sony.

  • TW, KR, and CN targeted LCD technology as a major building block of their consumer electronic thrusts.

There are also a few startups in Eastern Europe. Availability of LCD panels has exploded with the DTV market, because the cost of entry is lower with external LCD panel availability. There are many new OEMs, including Vizio, Syntax-Brillian (Olevia), Best Buy, Insignia, HP, Dell, Polaroid, Westinghouse, and many others.

LCD technology has gone through eight successive levels of technology. Current 8th Generation Panels are very large—up to 100” diagonal cut TV panels. There is also new technology being perfected, including LCOS and OLED.

 OLED Developments
Displays made with this technology use thin polymer substrates on which printed layers of organic compounds in rows and columns are located. The resulting pixels emit bright light of different colors, without backlighting.

This results in a thinner, lighter display, which consumes less power than a backlit LCD display. OLEDs use an indium tin oxide backplane layer to drive pixels. Video-capable displays use active matrix polysilicon transistors on the backplane.

It appears that AMOLEDs and a new version of PMOLED will be future winners in display technology. Standing in the way are the huge, multi-billion dollar investments that have already been made in LCD panel development and production for large displays, and technical/cost barriers which must be overcome to achieve ultimate AMOLED success. The OLED life cycle is an issue, with wear-out not yet long enough for commercial success in HDTV applications.

But, the advantages of OLED technologies are very compelling, and will probably result in ultimate success. Since flat panel display technology is considered strategic to Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and ultimately China, much effort will be conducted to achieve OLED leadership.  

§         OLED Developmental Activities

  • The Japanese government, via NEDO.go.jp/, is backing Sony, Toshiba, Panasonic, and others to develop 40” OLED technology by 2015.

  • Samsung already has a 14.1” notebook display and a 40” HDTV prototype. It appears to be positioned as a leader in OLED display technology, which will translate into major end-use products. such as smart phones, media players, computers, and TVs.

AMOLED players include Samsung SDI, TMDisplay, Sony, AUO, Chi Mei, Samsung SEC, Toppoly, Casio, Sharp, LG Philips, Seiko-Epson, eMagin, and MED.

PMOLED players include RiTdisplay, Pioneer, Samsung SDI, TDK, LGE, Orion, Kolon Neoview, Ness Display, Univision, Lightronix, Lite Array, Truly, Visionox, eMagin, and MED.

Ultra-Slim LCD Panels
 The trend toward ultra-thin LCD panels started with thinned/repackaged LCD, and in the future, large-screen OLED.

§         Design:

  • Less than 40mm thin LCD TV panels with 40 percent weight reduction and wireless capability.

  • Movement toward onboard electronics and I/O moving to external boxes.

  • Extend inherently thin new technologies (OLED) to large-screen LCD applications.

§         Future:

  • Repackaging, perhaps in conjunction with WHDI, is highly likely over the next one to three years.

  • Replacing existing AMLCD technology with OLED will happen—but not for three to five years.

  • Smaller cabinet/desktop HDTV is appearing; it will be in mass production within one to three years.

  • Laptop desktop PCs with HDTV capability is emerging.

  • Mass production issues include the OLED development cost and the huge LCD manufacturing infrastructure.

§         Players:

  • Samsung, Sony, Hitachi, Panasonic, LG, Sharp, and many others

§         Connector Potential:

  • Thinner FPC connectors

  • Continued pressure for smaller size, wireless

  • Movement of electronic circuitry from LCD panel to external box

  • Reduction/elimination of legacy connectors over time: S-Video, DVI, composite video

  • Possible cross-platform entry of display port connector

Slim TV Links
Mitsubishi 40mm (a hair over 1.5 inches) thick panels should begin manufacturing before the year is up. But, their use of WHDI to link the panel to the external tuner box adds an interesting twist to this trend. http://gizmodo.com/assets/images/gizmodo/2008/08/mitsumain2.jpg

Sharp unveiled a super-svelte 52-inch LCD TV prototype that the company plans to make at a new $3 billion plant near Osaka starting in March 2010. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwW0oPvivWo

Samsung Electronics Co. Ltd has launched a 52-inch ultra-slim LCD TV and two smaller sets with an emerging display technology that boasts better picture quality than current LCD and plasma TVs. The new products offer a peek into the direction Samsung is heading in the HDTV market. The company has yet to begin mass production of any of the products. The sets with advanced OLED displays weigh about 40 percent less than LCD TVs of the same size, while offering better contrast, color, and brightness, Samsung said. The company showcased a 14.1-inch and a 31-inch model at the Consumer Electronics Show, and plans to begin commercial production of mid- to large-sized OLED TVs around 2010. http://www.amazon.com/Samsung-LN52A850-52-Inch-1080p-120Hz/dp/B001DW0EWI

Wireless HDTV
Design

  • Eliminate cables between video sources (cable box, DVR/DVD, camcorder, etc.) to large screen HDTV or projector with less than or equal to 1,080 pixels. 

Concepts

  • WHDTV chip sets with signaling via OEM-embedded modules in TVs and video sources

  • HDMI, DVI, or VGA dongles at source and receiver ends

  • 802.11n, WHDI or OEM proprietary wireless transmission

  • Integration of circuitry from TV to allow thin wall-hung HDTV panels.

Markets

  • Upscale TV segment: Large screen/home theatre HDTV market

  • Potential other CE/appliance/home automation applications

  • 25 percent of 32” or greater HDTV market by 2013, 35 percent by 2015, 50 percent by 2018.

  • Dongles may succeed, but the eventual winner will be OEM-embedded circuitry.

  • Some concerns are industry STDs/vendor take-up and interoperability, cost, timing, and box replacement cycles.

  • Potential play into cable/satellite services

Players

  • Chip set manufacturers are Amimon, Freescale, Intel, and others.

  • OEM HDTV producers include Samsung, Sony, Panasonic, Mitsubishi, Hitachi, Sharp, etc.

  • HDTV component OEMs, other video source OEMs

  • Video/cable accessory manufacturers, such as Belkin

Connector Potential

  • Module/dongle I/O connectors

  • Internal module/circuitry PCB/B2B connectors

  • Antennas

Issue

  • Long-term reduction of more than 25-40 percent in HDMI cable assemblies

  • The impact on I/O ports will not be felt until after 2012.

Links:

http://www.whdi.org

http://www.amimon.com

John MacWilliams
Senior Consultant and Analyst, Bishop & Associates Inc.
 John MacWiIliams has been in the electronics industry for over 40 years. His main areas of experience have included: U.S. competitiveness programs, market research studies, authored articles, field sales and management, product marketing management, strategic marketing, new product planning, venture development, advertising and media relations, direct sales, manufacturers representative, distribution sales management, and international marketing. MacWilliams has worked with AMP, Diceon Electronics, TRW, and IRC in marketing management positions. Prior to joining Bishop & Associates, MacWilliams served as the group director of marketing and new product planning for AMP.

 MacWilliams is a graduate of Lehigh University, where he studied business management and engineering.

 

 


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