Connector Roadmap to the Future …
Drawn With Your Input
By John MacWilliams, Bishop & Associates Inc.

Every two years the International Electronic Manufacturing Initiative publishes a Technology Roadmap of the electronics industry. Information on the 2011 roadmap process is available at http://www.inemi.org/cms/initiatives/.

The roadmap includes individual chapters on electronic component technologies, including semiconductors, passive components, printed circuits, connectors, and many others. It also includes roadmaps on electronic packaging, and board and system assembly. It uses product emulators to predict technologic parameters for various types of electronics, from handhelds though large systems. The semiconductor section is quite detailed, thanks to cooperation with the ITRS semiconductor roadmap process. This book provides a roadmap-type outlook for the next decade, with more than 1,400 pages available in a CD, and available at the nominal cost of $100-$325, depending on your location and iNEMI membership status.

The roadmap’s objective is to provide member companies, industry, government, academia, and researchers a comprehensive planning tool on electronics technologies. In doing so, it is important to note that we all realize no one can predict with accuracy everything that will happen 10 years from now, or even predict the pace of change to new technology. But the iNEMI effort, with massive input from industry, is about as close as you can get to seeing the future through a wide range of industry technologies. More than 1,000 industry experts contribute to this body of knowledge.

While some might view such efforts as futile, given the uncertainties of long-range forecast, others understand that predictive-based roadmapping with gap-analysis is an important planning tool, without which you are flying blind. While all roadmaps are imperfect, the iNEMI effort is an important industry tool, unique in its scope, unique in the number of its contributors, and unique in the level of cooperation given competitive considerations.

The 2011 edition of the roadmap is underway now, and we’d like to ask for your help.

Input, questions, and comments should be addressed to me at the following address:

iNEMI Connector Roadmap Chair

John L. MacWilliams USCompetitors@me.com

2009 Roadmap
The 2009 connector roadmap was the fifth produced since 2000. Through each cycle we have had the benefit of the previous roadmaps’ inputs. The overall 2009 iNEMI Roadmap can be purchased online at iNEMI.org. The 2009 Connector Roadmap included sections on the following:

• Executive Summary and Findings

• Key Trends and Roadblocks

• International Roadmaps: Taiwan, Europe

• Critical Issues

• Connector Design and Manufacturing

• Environmental Requirements

• Product Roadmaps:

- IC Sockets

- Memory Sockets

- Memory Card Receptacles

- PCB Connectors

- Backplane Connectors

- Fiber Optic Connectors

- Cable Assemblies

- Test and Burn-in Sockets

2011 Roadmap – Seeking Your Input
Below are several existing and new areas that can be improved with your input. Contact me at the above email address, and I’ll provide you with the outline information for your selected area. Timing is critical; help us now. The final draft must be completed in September 2010 and submitted to iNEMI for integration into the overall industry document.

1.     Connector Manufacturing: The OEM movement to outsource and offshore electronic assembly began in the late ‘90s, and accelerated after 2000. This led connector manufacturers to establish manufacturing plants in close proximity to OEM and EMS customers in Asia Pacific and China. The result was a shift from domestic high volume semi-automated manufacturing to operator-assisted bench-type assembly in Asia. Quality control was “inspected in” to product. High-volume domestic manufacturing was curtailed in favor of offshore hand and bench-type assembly. The current situation is that manufacturing venues such as China are seeing increased labor costs—and the need to automate. Thus the next wave of manufacturing technology in China will go from hand assembly to world-class automation. Other low-cost labor areas, such as Vietnam, will be increasingly employed to leverage low-cost labor.

We are seeking input on the manufacturing section and can provide the 2009 section to those who would like to help. See below for the Draft of a North American/U.S. Manufacturing Roadmap Table.

2.     Roadblocks, Gaps, and Showstoppers for Connector Manufacturing, 2011-2021: This section will discuss technology roadblocks that may prevent connectors from achieving needed design parameters demanded by future system packaging —or cause a sea change in connector design, and/or result in encroachment by alternative technologies. Examples include sub-miniaturization below traditional connector manufacturing technology, high-speed signaling beyond conventional connector design capability, System-in-Package/System-on-Chip impact on conventional PCB layout, wireless cable elimination impact on connectorization, and BGA surface mount of large chips vs. socketing.

3.     Future of Fiber Optics and Connectorization in a Copper World: Fiber optics, waveguides, even free-space optics were predicted to overtake copper circuitry by now. That has not occurred, outside of certain high-performance telecom equipment such as DWDMs. What will electronic circuitry look like in 2021 and what role will fiber optics play?

4.     New 2011 Roadmaps: We plan to add the following new sections to the 2011 roadmap.

• Solid State Memory SATA Drives

• HDMI

• Display Port

• USB 3.0

• Photovoltaics, Solar Panel Interconnects

• Electric Vehicles/Battery Interconnects

• LED Lighting

• Test-in-Tray Test Connector Technology

A table format for product roadmaps is available.

If you wish to add an additional category or would like to participate in creating those above, please contact me at jmacwilliams@bishopinc.com.

5.       2009 Product Roadmaps to continue in 2011:

• IC Sockets featuring processor socket technology

• DDR/DIMM Memory Sockets

• Flash Memory Receptacles

• Printed Circuit Connectors

• Wire-to-Board Connectors

• Miniature Board Stacking Connectors

• Fiber Optic Connectors (with new input #3 above)

• 2mm Backplane Connectors

• High Performance Backplane Connectors

• Cable Assemblies—Cat5-7, Industrial Ethernet, Plenum/Riser Cables, Other?

• Test & Burn-In Sockets (with new input #4 above)

6.       North American Roadmap Illustration:

Provided below is a new North American Roadmap draft table that attempts to capsule trends in North American manufacturing. We hope to provide similar tables for Europe, China, and Asia Pacific in this roadmap cycle.

 North American Connector Manufacturing and
Engineering Roadmap
Draft 2011-2021

North American electronics manufacturing has evolved through six decades to its current level of precision, subminiature, surface mount connector technology and applications. Post 2000, massive outsourcing at the OEM level to reduce costs and leverage China and other Asia Pacific venues created the “global supply chain,” and connectors were part of it. Components are increasingly made where contract manufacturing is conducted and where consumer demand is increasing. 

The current situation is that most high-volume standard product system assembly has migrated to Asia; along with it, standard products/high-volume connector manufacturing. Remaining in North America (or in near-shore locations) will be manufacturing lines that support domestic OEM and EMS production, i.e. applications that require a high degree of development and application engineering support and are less price-sensitive; and markets that depend primarily on domestic manufacturing, such as military/aerospace, medical, industrial, (traditionally) automotive, and emerging alternative energy markets.

Over the next decade we see several trends: 1) Engineering will migrate to offshore manufacturing areas and emerging markets, 2) There will be world-class automation in China, as labor rates increase, 3) North American manufacturing will continue to refocus toward lower volume, high-tech, specialty, and new technology products, with issues of how to support an infrastructure, and 4) The possibility of a paradigm shift in printed circuit board assembly toward integrated micro-packaging, printed electronics, and other new technologies that could support new platforms for high-volume/low-cost manufacturing domestically.

Much will depend on developments in IC technology, and the direction of key semiconductor OEMs such as Intel, with specific movement toward system level integration via SiP and SoC. New materials technologies (nano materials) may also create future opportunities, such as super-conductivity, and an expansion into micron level MEMS interconnect/packaging.

Please help us shape the most accurate and detailed roadmap possible. Be a part of this important process and contribute your insights to the process—the entire industry benefits when we all share our knowledge.

John MacWilliams Senior Consultant and Analyst, Bishop & Associates Inc. John MacWiIliams has been in the electronics industry for over 40 years. His main areas of experience have included: U.S. competitiveness programs, market research studies, authored articles, field sales and management, product marketing management, strategic marketing, new product planning, venture development, advertising and media relations, direct sales, manufacturers representative, distribution sales management, and international marketing. MacWilliams has worked with AMP, Diceon Electronics, TRW, and IRC in marketing management positions. Prior to joining Bishop & Associates, MacWilliams served as the group director of marketing and new product planning for AMP. MacWilliams graduated from Lehigh University with degrees in business management and engineering.