Roadblocks to Success in the Electronics Industry and Connectors
By John MacWilliams, Bishop & Associates Inc.

Connector Technology vs. System Design and Semiconductors:
Electronic connectors are an important, technologically interdependent component of the electronics industry. Connector product designs flow from electronic system requirements. These, in turn, dictate electrical performance, system packaging and interconnect, use of standards, and communications technology, i.e. bus topologies, wired or wireless I/O.

Semiconductor technology is a major influence on system design, and by association, on connectors. Various IC technologies impact systems: CMOS/digital, analog, logic, memory, imaging, communications, power, and IC packaging. As Moore’s Law advances through successive technology nodes—from 90 through 45, 32, 22, and eventually 16, 12nm and new revolutionary devices—connector technology will continually change to meet these requirements, or will they? Some areas of concern: 

• Smaller: Precision injection-molded technology is approaching its limits

• Denser: Fine-pitch contacts are nearing the limits of conventional technology

• Thinner: SMT vs. through-hole mounting is already widespread

• Lighter: New materials technology is ongoing

• Faster: Serial vs. parallel circuitry is passing 10Gb/s; speed will be an issue

• Environmental: Lead-free, halogen-free, ongoing challenges, unknowns

• Application-Specific: Thousands of unique requirements and challenges

As these requirements change, technical challenges emerge that can impede system design, performance, and cost. Most challenges are met—and exceeded, both in systems and connectors. For example: Copper circuitry and interconnect have far exceeded what was thought possible before fiber optics became necessary. The electronics industry has had a remarkable record of continuous improvement, embodied in the development of successive generations of important new products. Connector technology has played a critical role in these industry applications.

Roadblocks and Other Technological Issues:
Below is a list of potential roadblocks and/or technical challenges facing the electronics industry and connectors over the next decade. Of course, THERE ARE MORE ROADBLOCKS, AND WE WOULD LIKE YOUR INPUT. Details on technical roadblocks and trends can be found in the 2011 iNEMI.org Electronics Industry Roadmap.

Approaching Limits of IC Scaling: Probably not. Relatively speaking, Moore’s Law is slowing from its rapid advances in the past. Yet it remains the industry’s most dynamic technology driver and has adopted new ways to innovate. IC designs are accommodating expanding technology needs with multi-chip, complex chip, and multi-core applications: processors, flash memory storage, three-dimensional stacking of thinned die, 3D packaging, system-in-package, and system-on-chip. CMOS will remain the main industry driver through 2020, when emerging research devices and materials (ERD, ERM) will achieve potential breakthroughs in IC design.

Approaching the Limits of Connector Scaling: We’ll call it “Watt’s Up?” Connectors are approaching lower limits of the fabrication of robust connector contacts, both size and pitch. While this affects a small percentage of connector applications, mostly in handheld devices, limits to connector miniaturization are near. Conventional stamped-and-formed contacts bottom out at ~ 4-6 mils/100-150mm pitch. Area array contacts will be increasingly difficult below 0.5mm pitch and may be replaced by new bulk-micro-machined contact systems—or by direct-soldered BGA attach of large area arrays. Co-planarity and board warpage with higher melt temperature lead-free solders in large area arrays will require new solutions. Reduced centerline/higher density connector designs impact crosstalk and impedance control, and make it harder to integrate shielding systems. Fine-pitch leads may be more susceptible to shorting by tin whiskers in lead-free solders. Development of conductive nano materials and new assembly processes, using both additive and subtractive contact fabrication technologies, may address extreme density issues, but the unit cost may be an issue for high-volume applications.

Approaching Limits of High-Speed Performance: Advances in chip technology have enabled copper connector bandwidth to far exceed original expectations. Are we near the limits of signal conditioning that will allow 20, and eventually 40, 100 Gb interfaces? We are already far beyond where the industry thought we could go just 10 years ago. Gb/s speeds were unheard of. USB and other high-speed serial interfaces hadn’t yet been invented. Crosstalk and inductance were challenges to be met—and were. Will future applications see the same improvements? Connector designs for speeds above 10 Gb/s in both test and production connectors will be met, and it seems likely that advanced backplane connector systems will meet 20 to 40 Gb/s speeds. Beyond that, optical systems will be needed in the mainstream.

Connector Role in Future Roadblocks: There are few known roadblocks to connector technology within the scope of conventional electronic systems. Each challenge has been met. An assembly with many different components results in great design flexibility in the connector industry. But connectors are cross-linked with other technologies; for example, PCB line pitch, pad pitch, etc., influences connector design. The main threat to future connector applications seems distant, a leapfrog from conventional PCB packaging into some new form of integrated/embedded systems relating to silicon chip and packaging technology. A glimpse of this may be found in MEMS circuitry that can include logic, memory, and systems packaging in a microchip. In addition, wireless and gesture/voice recognition systems will change the way we interact with electronic devices, eliminating cables and connectors. A future computer could consist of a three-inch block that contains all computing and I/O functions, understands commands, and projects a display without many connectors.

Test Paradigm: The semiconductor industry has for some time been grappling with the rising cost of testing—to the point where test and/or burn-in costs for some products reach 20% of value, and in a few cases, even higher. While the test and burn-in socket market remains robust, there will be increasing challenges in this important area. Alternatives being addressed include combining test and burn-in, eliminating traditional packaged device burn-in, employing wafer-scale probe testing, wafer-level packaging and test, bare die/flip-chip packaging, and using test-in-tray technology. (See the March 1, 2011 edition of ConnectorSupplier.com for an article on Test & Burn-In.)

Design, Modeling and Simulation Tools: These tools have advanced rapidly in connectors and played an extensive role in high-performance connector design and modeling. But in the broader context of integrated system design, new tools to be used in lightwave modeling, materials characterization, packaging, complex system design, manufacturability, test, and assembly are needed. This is particularly important as design and assembly moves through the supply chain to subcontract manufacturers. Multi-disciplinary tools are needed to reduce cost and simplify complex system and supply-chain design.

Outsourcing Paradigm: As electronics manufacturing moves from OEMs, EMS/ODM recipients will have lower margins, smaller R&D budgets, and thin organizations. Supplier-subcontract teams will struggle to provide the ongoing RD&E necessary for future systems design and manufacturability. OEMs, industry consortia, and academia will have roles in assisting future design and manufacturing technologies that will slow with outsourcing. Few OEMs are maintaining that role as they outsource. Example: There is a future HDI multi-chip mainboard or printed electronics technology needed to leapfrog conventional printed circuit board assemblies. Who will develop it? With few exceptions, this is no longer in-house OEM. Industry leaders, such as Intel, HP, and Samsung; EMS leaders such as Foxconn, Flextronics, Celestica, Sanmina/SCI; and industry consortia such as iNEMI; will step into this role.

Energy Storage Paradigm: As alternative energy technologies are sought, so is the need for high-performance, mass-energy storage systems that are cost-effective without massive government subsidies. If the world is to convert fossil fuel-powered vehicles to electric and/or plug-in hybrid, better battery technologies are needed. At this time, the current and near-term prospects for Li-ion, Li-polymer, and other cell technologies are not competitive with fossil fuels, and still require subsidies.

Lighting/Illumination Paradigm: If the U.S. could convert its incandescent lighting (past fluorescent) to LEDs, we would save hundreds of GWs—the equivalent of over 100 coal-fired power plants. This will eventually happen, but the cost of LEDs for commercial/residential lighting illumination remains a barrier to widespread adoption. A lot of “energy” is being invested in this technology, mostly in Asia, and a nascent LED lighting market has begun to emerge.

Alternative Energy Technologies: Bishop has published its first alternative energy report, The World Connector Market for Renewable Energy for Wind and Solar, which examines wind and solar energy developments. The 2009-2010 global recession had a large impact on these systems, not least of which was the loss of major government funding. There remains a “chicken-or-egg” dilemma here, tied into a fragile world economy that cannot withstand a major oil shock—or the cost of implementing these new technologies.

Environmental Regulations: RoHs, WEEE, and other regulations were a costly challenge, quickly inspiring industry to switch from leaded solder and other hazardous chemicals to environmentally safer materials. However, EU REACH and other findings have vastly increased regulatory complexity. This threatens to hamstring the industry. High-reliability applications are caught between adherence and no long-term data. Medical applications require chlorine disinfectants. The number of banned materials is expanding, as are international jurisdictions. What started out as a well-organized and compliant campaign with limited scope now threatens to get out of control on a global basis.

Non-Technology-Oriented Roadblocks: Many roadblocks affect the industry in various regions of the world. Here are some pressing examples, which come under the heading of globalization—and could jeopardize the extent to which this would be a beneficial, cooperative, and stable future business environment:

• Manufacturing Infrastructure is declining in the U.S. and the EU as more and more electronic assembly is outsourced to other regions. The U.S., EU, Japan, and Taiwan are all experiencing this issue to varying degrees. For example, while dominating certain markets, North America is losing its ability to manufacture high-volume, low-cost products. We could re-establish it, but it would be a costly, time-critical exercise. Taiwan has outsourced motherboard, notebook computer, and other products to the mainland. While these regions have retained market share and technology, the nuts and bolts of the industry have been outsourced or relocated to China. The long-term future effects of this trend are uncertain, particularly in a fragile socio-political world environment.

• The Outsourcing Phenomenon has also created dislocations in RD&E, as mentioned above. OEMs formerly did this work. Some still do. But the bulk of responsibility has passed on to materials and component suppliers, and to contract manufacturers. The latter work on varying thin margins, a cyclical business environment, and do not invest in a lot of R&D. Who will be the champions of future design and manufacturing breakthroughs? It will require major EMS firms to take up the challenge, along with industry consortia such as iNEMI, ITRI, Frauhofer, MITI, and others. It will also require continued OEM support of companies like Intel. IBM was at one time a dominant influence in packaging R&D, but is no more. Loss of OEM omnipotence, localized high-volume manufacturing, and reduced government funding for basic material and process research helps speed the shift of innovation and competitiveness to other countries.

• Technical Personnel Shortages: Western democracies depend on a continuing influx of foreign engineers and scientists, many of whom are granted visas to be educated here. We are now seeing a developing shortage of highly trained engineers and scientists, and foreign scientists who are here or are entering the workforce are being recruited back home. The pull of India and China’s own electronics industries is becoming a major factor, and there may be an insufficient number of homegrown technologists to fill the gap.

• Government Investments in Technology: One can debate the effectiveness of government involvement, and there has been a significant drop in this area of spending. There should be a major thrust to assist the industry in re-establishing high-volume manufacturing via lights-out manufacturing technology.

Author’s Note: Outsourcing has had many beneficial effects, which include a re-ordering of manufacturing and people investment loads from OEM to EMS/ODM industry; lower costs to the consumer; focusing manufacturing assembly technology in manufacturing-specialist companies; and freeing up OEMs to capitalize on their market leadership roles and to penetrate international growth markets.

John MacWilliams Senior Consultant and Analyst, Bishop & Associates Inc. John MacWilliams, a senior consultant to Bishop & Associates, has 40 years of diverse experience in the electronics industry. He has worked in sales, market development, and management positions for IRC, TRW, AMP (prior to TE), and his consultancy, US Competitors LLC. He authors the connector chapter for the International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative, and has a website, Electronics Industry. John is a graduate of Lehigh University and resides near Newark, DE.