Predicting the Next Decade for the Electronics and Connectors Industry
By John L. MacWilliams, Bishop & Associates Inc.
 

The electronics industry is among the most diverse and technologically advanced enterprises on the planet. Its advances come from the semiconductor industry, electronic components, electronic systems, and software. Among related industries, advances in materials science and chemistry are important, as are developments in metallurgical science and applications, electro-optics, and electronics manufacturing technologies.

We’ll venture a forecast of the electronics and connector industries going forward one decade. However, while predicting this fast-moving industry’s technology advances is difficult, it may be easier than forecasting changes in economics, fiscal, and geopolitical climates that profoundly affect business conditions. Who predicted the 2008 housing meltdown or the current EU fiscal crisis? These events and others have a deep impact on the marketplace and short-term developments in our industry.

Semiconductor Technology and Moore’s Law
Moore’s Law (from Gordon Moore, Intel) has predicted the future scaling of semiconductor technology over the past several decades. This is a result of the industry being evolutionary and relatively predictable, with incremental improvements each year, and being a relative open book in technical advances. One thing often missed is the role played by semiconductor materials and manufacturing equipment suppliers. Some say, as goes Applied Materials Corp., so goes the semiconductor industry.

But as with anything, there comes an end to Lilliputianism. Downward scaling can’t go on forever. Atomic particle size can’t be beat. This is like the ever-expanding universe: At some point it slows down, stops, and may start moving in reverse. The semiconductor industry is approaching this inflection point, where downward scaling has begun to slow. But this is being offset by new device strategies, including 3D packaging. There is also the likelihood that design innovation, new materials, and imaging technology will help to continue scaling for the next 10-15 years or so. Wafer size is another criterion. New York State, along with IBM and Intel, has created a $4.5B research consortium to develop next-generation 450mm wafer technology. This would dramatically increase the number of devices/wafer, thus lowering costs and/or allowing larger, more complex chips. So IC technology has other ways to go besides getting smaller. It’s also getting bigger with ULSI chips, but at a lower cost.

Multi-core processing, 3D-stacked circuitry, and systems-in-package (i.e. multi-chip) have also increased in the past few years. There have been constant improvements in microprocessors, DRAM, ASICs, Image processors, sensor chips, wireless radio chips, LCDs, and non-volatile memory. Among these, flash memory, or SSD, has begun to achieve its potential to create a whole new class of monolithic memory-intensive electronic devices (iPhone, iPad, UltraBooks, other monolithic devices) and to offer Si hard disks. Similarly, solid state battery technology is in advance. Time will tell whether battery technology (and its rare earth materials) will continue to be a limiting factor. An iPad or Kindle are blocks of thin batteries with a few chips and outboard components.

• The current crop of handheld/laptop products are the tip of the iceberg. Over the next decade, many new products will be introduced with advanced imaging, ultra-portability, wireless communications, and artificial intelligence capability.

• Devices will evolve from social, business, or technology media portals into indispensable intellectual companions. Some will be hand-held, others will communicate from your pocket or briefcase.

• Key semiconductor technologies will include SiP, SoC, and 3D SSD memory, image sensors, signal conditioning, motion/position sensors, on-chip radios, OLED displays, next-generation batteries, and ultra-thin packaging.

• There will be less emphasis on creating content, and more on corralling, organizing, and manipulating the gazillions of content and data already out there — including your own — in the Cloud.

• Advances in business equipment may be less pronounced, until actual decision-making tasks are turned over to computers. In that case they may have a kick bar or punching bag handy for when they make a mistake. Expect to see server virtualization become common (fewer servers running multiple platforms). Also expect to see lower power, notebook-like blade servers as well as desktop super computers.

• Telecom will become even more Internet-based. Wireless advances will include widespread femtocell base stations.

• More storage will be in the Cloud, and we do not know at this point whether this will actually impact local storage up or down (probably down, but not soon).

The Future of Connectors
The role connectors play in these innovations will be challenged by increasingly small product size and thinness, monolithism, and by ubiquitous wireless communications, sometimes in place of IO connectors. Connector applications will include memory chip sockets, small board-to-board and stacking connectors, battery contacts, LCD display drivers, and IO connectors (docking/charging, sound, video).

In the world of larger systems, desktop/desk-side electronic systems, connectors will evolve to the next and next generations, living in concert with SMT system packaging, and modularity. We don’t want to say “more of the same,” because there will be advances, both physical and electrical.

Changes will be incremental, rather than revolutionary, over the next decade, and they will be fully dependent on system packaging developments. With increased integration there may be fewer outboard connectors per system, offset by greater system unit volume.

One caveat is with fiber optics. Long the bride-in-waiting, FO has not yet reached its ultimate potential. It fell back with a thud during the dotcom implosion in 2000. But when IC technology successfully internalizes on-chip and off-chip electro-optics, in-system FO will begin to take off. We think that may happen in the 2020s, but it will depend on ERDs (Emerging Research Devices) from Intel and others. Bottom line on fiber: It won’t happen as long as copper does the job.

Some other predictions for the future:

Electrical/Electronic Systems

Equipment/Large Systems:

• 10GbE to 40GbE to 100GbE, XFP, and other FO connectors

• 16-32 Node Enterprise Server Systems, HDD/SSD storage, Lightpeak 100Gb/s IO

• 10Gb/s headed to > 25Gb backplanes. PCB materials/trace length will be limiting factor

• More compact orthogonal BP structures will emerge, as will twinaxial cabled and connectorized BP systems

• Cloud storage will become ubiquitous

Passenger Vehicles:

Smart Appliances:

• Remotely monitored appliance service

• Home networking expands to include appliances, HE, security, other devices

• Lighter weight high-strength non-metallic enclosures may emerge, unless steel prices decline

Lighting:

• LED lighting is on the move: rapid growth commercial 2012, residential 2015

Energy:

• Solar growth issue will be lack of subsidies. AGR will depend on costs coming down a lot — which is already happening.

• Wind will be public utilities, but offshore wind has issues

• NA shale oil and gas boom could result in a major renaissance in domestic economic growth and manufacturing

Home Entertainment:

• Integrated WiFi entertainment systems

• 911 VOIP. Assume Microsoft grows Skype applications in PCs; some RBOCs will drop POTS.

• HD Internet TV (and stand-off with cable on bandwidth needs)

• 100” LCD HDTV

Small/Handheld Systems:

• UltraBooks w/4G, VOIP, SSD, Thunderbolt, HDMI, USB 3.0

  Ø  10” Tablets with HDMI, USB 3.0

• 802.11 wireless speeds to 1 Gb/s

• Bluetooth V4, 5 low energy devices

• RFID location devices

• Virtual Wallet Payment system

• Artificial Intelligence — Level II & III

Connectors:

• More of same/similar w/emphasis on size, reliability, performance, and cost

• Chip shooter SMT connector standards may emerge, 0805 and up

• Encroachment: BGA/mBGA Direct Attach, m-Machined subminiature connectors, WUSB, streamlining out legacy

• First intro of mainstream board-level FO interconnect system (probably in servers and storage)

• FO enabled by single chip CMOS optical transceivers

• Evolution of HP backplane and other high-speed connectors past 25, toward 100 Gb/s

• Debate on cost/need for Thunderbolt/DisplayPort on PC, peripherals. Why not USB 3.0 at 4.8Gb/s?

• Waning desktop PC toward more portability, all-in-one systems — some impact on connector volume

• Traditional PC motherboard impacted by maturing desktop

• IO Winners: HDMI, DP, USB 3.0 (OEM variants + FO port); successor to RJ45.

• Electronification of electrical systems, e.g. what happened in automotive: i.e. many new connector applications

• Connectors designed for harsh environments: shock, vibration, mechanical abuse, temperature extremes, isolation from moisture and other contaminants are attracting interest in a wide variety of markets. 

• Additional features, including smaller profiles and reduced weight, are becoming important in many transportation-related applications.

Connector Technology Linkages/Roadblocks

• mm Connector Size: Now approaching physical stamp/form/mold limits. Subminiature size is an oxymoron to connectors: too small can’t provide robust, disconnectable connections. MEMS technology provides one solution, which may take hold in 3D/multichip packaging (i.e. Level 2 packaging), or in future monolithic systems-in-package. < 100mm micro-wire fabrication also emerging.

• Successor to Organic PCB? Printed electronics is being developed on several fronts. The ultimate platform could be full-silicon, or thin, flexible circuits with embedded passives. These developments, circa 2020-25, could negate PCBs in some HV applications, starting with small form-factor systems. Connector technology must keep pace with these developments because PCB connectors are the largest connector market segment.

• Circuit Speed/Bandwidth: Connectors are to some extent the tail wagging the dog here. Circuit board platforms, traces, etc. are more important to performance. Connectors do provide fiber optic and hybrid fiber/copper alternatives, as copper no longer does the job. Key to this area is signal conditioning, shorter geometries, and modeling/simulation tools to get it right – and longer-term, new PCB platforms.

• Packaging/Interconnect: Decision to socket/connectorize is a tradeoff between lowest cost (direct attach) and modular construction (connector/socket). Other times both wireless and connectorized solutions are required. The major area of contention today is with BGA packaging, which has become common in many ICs. But connectors too provide a BGA/SMT option. In the future, we expect to see more Systems-in-Package with more direct attach/semi-monolithic packaging structures. Connectors will continue to be used and need to adapt to future sub-miniature packaging routines. This will include increases in connecting islands of digital circuitry within systems.

• Manufacturing Infrastructures: Regional shifts in manufacturing in the last decade are leaving voids in some basic areas. These include the local pool of graduating engineers, master tool and die makers, precision metal working, etc.; not to mention high-volume production capabilities, particularly in small, high-volume systems. Western regions, once the home to all technology, now suffer from increasing dislocations. It is anticipated that solutions must be found to this increasing problem – including rationalization of regional demand with local manufacturing. This means a future China may be more focused on domestic demand, with new alternatives opening up in Western markets. These opportunities will depend on advances in Si and system packaging.

• Engineers: There are concerns about lagging engineering graduation rates in the U.S. Industry wants broader Green Card and other immigration policies to help fill the gap. There is also a $2B effort developing in New York City to address this problem. A new technical institute will be established on Roosevelt Island to accommodate several thousand graduate and post-grad students by 2040. NYC, Cornell University, and Technion Israel Institute will sponsor it. And potentially a consortium of NY University, Columbia, and Carnegie Mellon. Charles F. Findley, a Cornell graduate and philanthropist, will donate $350M toward the effort.

Look for the new 175-page report, “The Next Decade in Electronics and Connectors,” available from Bishop & Associates in early 2012.

John MacWilliams Senior Consultant and Analyst, Bishop & Associates Inc. John has enjoyed a long and diverse career in the electronics industry, including management positions with IRC, TRW, AMP, and his own company, US Competitors LLC. He is the author of many industry articles, including past and current iNEMI.org connector industry roadmaps, U.S. government competitiveness initiatives, and numerous Bishop Reports on the computer and consumer electronics industries. He is an outspoken supporter of the future of U.S. manufacturing in a global marketplace. John is a graduate of the Wm. Penn Charter School in Philadelphia, and of Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA. He and his wife Louise, reside in Newark, DE, and Delray Beach, FL.