Emerging Markets, Emerging Technologies: The 2007 iNEMI Roadmap
By R. C. Pfahl, Jr., V.P. Operations and James B. McElroy, CEO, iNEMI

iNEMI, the International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative, is an industry-led consortium focused on electronics manufacturing. Our membership includes many of the industry’s leading OEMs and EMS firms, component and electronic material suppliers, and government agencies, as well as other parties involved in the electronics supply chain.

iNEMI published its seventh biennial roadmap earlier this year. This was a major effort, enabled by 500+ volunteers from all segments of the electronics industry, and cooperation from other industry roadmap efforts. Copies of this report, in a CD format, are available through the iNEMI website (www.inemi.org). iNEMI also identifies and coordinates specific projects that benefit electronics manufacturing, including several initiatives to help industry in the transition to lead-free electronics .

The 2007 iNEMI Roadmap identifies that digital convergence is occurring rapidly for existing markets and many key emerging markets, which are driven by consumer demand and social values, including health care, energy conservation, and homeland security.

To address both converging and emerging markets, iNEMI is emphasizing those technologies necessary to support miniaturization, high-reliability medical electronics, and energy and the environment in its project agendas. The technologies needed to meet these focus areas include: System-in-Package (SiP), System-on-Chip (SoC), and 3-D packaging. The focus areas are:

• Energy Storage and Conversion (i.e. Battery Technology)

• Sensors

• Advanced Manufacturing Processes

• Advanced Materials

This article highlights gaps in technology that we have identified from the 2007 Roadmap that may limit the growth of the electronics industry during the next decade, as well as projects that iNEMI is establishing to help address these challenges. Given the limited resources available to industry, academia, and governments in working toward these challenges, it is crucial that R&D efforts focus on these high-priority knowledge gaps.

Emerging Markets
As the electronics industry matures, many product segments are entering a commodity phase of their lifecycles. Accordingly, breakthrough technology may no longer be sufficient to ensure business success. Customers are demanding the right solution at the right cost from winning enterprises. This drives a whole series of business behaviors that are quite different from the past. OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) are looking to identify the “next big thing.” The electronics industry is completing a major re-structuring, moving the center of manufacturing competence from OEMs to EMS (electronics manufacturing services) providers and ODMs (original design manufacturers).

Business models in the electronics industry have changed; leading to significant shifts in roles and responsibilities across the supply chain. 

There has been a dramatic movement of manufacturing and manufacturing support to China from North America, Europe, and other Asian countries. This has occurred because of China’s:

1. Low-cost, highly skilled workforce

2. Massive market opportunities

Supply Chain Management (SCM) offers the potential to increase productivity.
The ability for supply chains to support lead-containing and lead-free bills-of-material (BOMs) is providing significant challenges and increasing investments. The increasing scope of outsourced operations requires loosely coupled business processes spanning multiple companies and continents.

Regulatory Concerns
Two EU Directives, RoHS (Restriction on use of certain Hazardous Substances) and WEEE (Waste from Electrical and Electronic Equipment), governing material content and end-of-life management of electronic products, were implemented on July 1, 2006 and August 13, 2005, respectively. Legislation impacting the design and recycling of electronic products is being enacted throughout the world, including China.

Environmental legislation in various product segments requires the electronics industry to share detailed material content data of their products and components. To meet regional legislative requirements, manufacturers must remove environmental “materials of concern,” such as lead. A number of “high-reliability” product manufacturers are taking lead exemptions under the EU RoHS, and requiring a dual supply chain for components.

All of these factors contribute to the fact that the electronics industry is facing end-of-life or producer responsibility legislation. 

Merging Markets
Boundaries between computers, communications, and entertainment products are blurring. Large, flat panel displays are experiencing rapid growth. Wireless products, particularly WiFi and Bluetooth, are now widely used, and digital cameras have merged into cellular phones. Home and office functionality is being added to automotive products. RFID systems are being used for security and increased efficiency of commerce. The needs of the telecommunication and data communication infrastructure are converging. With the move to all digital communications and storage, we see the convergence of a number of markets:

• Medical-Consumer

• Automotive-Entertainment

• Communication-Entertainment

• Computing-Entertainment

Prismark Partners of Cold Springs Harbor, NY, (www.prismark.com) predicts market growth as follows:

•  Worldwide production of computers and office equipment was expected to reach $431 billion in 2006, and continue to grow at an average rate of 5.4 percent per year to reach $532 billion in 2010, driven by business and individual consumer spending. This is the largest segment of the $1.2 trillion electronics industry, accounting for about 36 percent of overall equipment production.

• Global production of communications equipment is expected to reach $176 billion in 2006, representing about 15 percent of the electronics industry. This segment is expected to increase at an average rate of 7.9 percent per year to reach $239 billion in 2010. 

• Portable and consumer electronics production will reach $267 billion in 2006, following several years of exceptional growth. Overall, the consumer electronics segment is expected to increase at an average rate of about 3.4 percent per year to reach $305 billion in 2010.

• Medical electronics equipment production will be $53 billion in 2006, accounting for about 4 percent of the global electronics industry. This market is expected to continue to increase at an average rate of 5.6 percent per year to reach $66 billion in 2010. 

• In 2006, over three billion SiPs were used. By 2010, this number is expected to reach 6.65 billion, growing at an average rate of about 17 percent per year. 

Emerging Technology
The slowing of traditional semiconductor scaling (Moore’s Law) is generating significant reverberations in approaches and structures of computing systems.

Consequences include gradual but certain reduction of emphasis on the microprocessor frequency metric and a corresponding increase in importance of the system’s throughput metric. This shift in the system’s performance metric will generate increased demand for higher bandwidth, to and from the microprocessor.  Another consequence of the expected demise of traditional scaling is the increased need for improved cooling and operating junction temperature reduction, due to large leakage currents and an increase in chip power. 

The 2007 Roadmap did not identify a major need for optical transmission within high-performance printed wiring boards during the next decade. 

Growth in silicon device size is slowing. The rate of reduction in feature size has resumed a three-year cycle, its historical rate.

RF System-in-Package (SiP) applications have become the technology driver for small components, packaging, assembly processes, and for high-density substrates. SIP continues to be the fastest growing packaging technology, although still representing a relatively small percentage of the unit volume.

LCD and plasma displays have taken over the CRT market, while OLED (Organic LED) has the promise of providing thin, lightweight—even roll-up—display technology, which could compete with LCDs.

MEMS technology is making new capabilities feasible in a number of old and new markets, such as microphones, displays, servo control for mass data storage, and optical and RF switches.

A number of alternative approaches to today’s established data storage technologies will emerge over the next decade. These include magnetic random access memory (MRAM), probe-based, molecular, fluorescent multilayer optical, near-field optical, 3-D holographic storage components and systems, and use of NAND flash memory, with and in place of HDDs.

Lithium-ion and lithium-ion polymer electrolyte batteries have become the dominant rechargeable energy sources across the entire portable electronics segment—but a huge new application, hybrid electric/plug-in vehicles, are still 24 to 36 months away.

Highlighted Needs
Significant needs and trends in design technologies, manufacturing technologies, and component/subsystem technologies were identified in the 2007 iNEMI Roadmap. These needs are already affecting electronics manufacturing and the way we do business:

Design Technologies
Design and simulation tools are the main roadblocks to a rapid introduction of new technologies by OEMs in a number of quickly developing areas. These areas include:

• Mechanics and reliability modeling

• Thermal and thermo-fluid simulation

• Co-design of mechanical, thermal, and electrical performance of the entire chip, package, and associated heat removal structures.

• Improved design tools for emerging technologies, like embedded passives and nano-materials.

• Integrated design and simulation tools (circuit, EM, thermal, mechanical, manufacturing, etc.) for higher functionality in mixed-mode wireless chips and modules. Commercial design for manufacturability, test, and assembly tools are needed by the EMS firms to increase manufacturing productivity and reduce costs. 

Manufacturing Technologies
With research and development (R&D) responsibility shifting from OEMs to the EMS companies, government, academia, and industry consortia need to formulate new ways to adopt and develop emerging technologies (such as nanotechnology) into the manufacturing process. These new approaches will have to be consistent with viable business and funding models (see Strategic Concerns) required to create new industrial infrastructures. Some ways to develop emerging technologies into the manufacturing process include:

• Process development to accelerate miniaturization.

• Advanced board assembly processes that support three-dimensional structures and low temperature processing.

• Product traceability.

• Lower testing costs, particularly for new non-digital technologies.

Component/Subsystem Technologies

The following are some component/subsystem technologies that are changing:

• Implementation of advanced, non-classical CMOS devices with enhanced drive current.

• Medium-power, low-loss, high-selectivity filters and wideband filters for consumer and portable products.

• Higher thermally conductive materials, such as carbon nano-tubes, carbon fiber, aluminum nitride, and even diamond, to cool optical and electronic devices.

• Cost reduction for flat panel displays if CRTs are to be fully displaced.

• In-circuit test technologies that can be incorporated into the build process.

• Low-cost, high-density, high-performance substrate technology.

• Lower dielectric constant materials to improve the performance of high-speed digital systems.

• New technologies and materials for next generation optical storage devices.

Paradigm Shifts
Many of the Roadmap’s technology working groups identified paradigm shifts that are taking place now, and potential paradigm shifts that might occur in the future. This information is critical for infrastructure providers to identify where non-linear changes may occur in the future. These changes provide both opportunities and risks for individual firms.

The need for the continuous introduction of complex, multifunctional new products to address the converging markets identified in 2004 has continued to favor development of functional, modular components, or SiP. This paradigm shift in a design approach increases the flexibility and shortens the product design cycle, and places the test burden on the producers of the modules.

Standard platform movement is developing in the telecom market to help address the disrupting and disaggregating of both the design chain and the supply chain. This movement could accelerate the introduction of new functions, by making them easier to do. Furthermore, it could create efficiencies and opportunities for higher volume niche operations, such as circuit faceplates or thermal solutions or CAD templates. Telecom, computing, IT, and military sectors are affected.

Flash memory has become the mass storage medium of choice for many mobile applications, such as digital still cameras, MP3 players, and cell phones. This is due to its low cost (in lower capacity points than hard disk drives) and greater ruggedness than alternative storage devices. Flash memory has also replaced floppy disks as the universal transfer medium in the form of USB flash drives; and it appears poised to play an important role as write cache memory in hybrid hard disk drives for mobile applications.

Other paradigm shifts identified in the 2007 iNEMI Roadmap:

• Manufacturing organizations are producing smaller batches, more frequently.

• MEMS are becoming important as microphones.

• Communication devices are changing from single-band to powerful devices with transparent accessibility in heterogeneous networks.

• Computing devices are becoming communication devices, and vice-versa.

• This roadmap identified a push-out in the need for optical transmission within high-performance printed wiring boards.

Emerging or potential paradigm shifts, identified in the 2007 iNEMI Roadmap, include:

• Multichip modules are being replaced by integrated RFICs in many portable communication products. The trend will be completed for cell phones and other transceivers, excluding power amplifiers (PAs), in the next one to two years, and will even include PAs within the next five years.

• A transition from analog to digital sensor architectures for automotive applications.

• Nanotechnology will be a very disruptive technology during the period covered by this roadmap.

• Energy storage system technologies that may present new opportunities include fuel cells and high-power batteries for hybrid electric vehicles.

Strategic Concerns
Restructuring of the electronics industry over the last decade, from vertically integrated OEMs to a multi-firm supply chain, has resulted in a disparity in R&D needs versus available resources. Critical needs for research and development exist in the middle part of the supply chain (IC assembly services, electronic components, and EMS assembly), yet these are the firms least capable of providing such resources. A partial solution has been the development of vertical teams to develop critical new technology, while sharing the costs.

Other concerns include:

• With R&D responsibility transitioning to the EMS companies in low-cost geographies, government, academia, and industry consortia will need to formulate ways to adopt and develop emerging technologies (such as nanotechnology) into the board assembly process and higher functional units within the global outsourcing environment.

• Consumers are increasingly concerned about the impacts that electronics products may exert regarding safety, energy usage, and environmental impact. These concerns need to be addressed proactively by the industry.

• Harmonization of environmental regulations for electronic products through international standardization.

• Ability of supply chain to support both lead-containing and lead-free bills-of-material will provide significant challenges and investments for some time to come.

• The materials supplier base does not have adequate demand at a high enough sales price to drive many of the needed new materials developments. As a result, materials developments are not keeping pace with the demand.

• The disaggregated supply chain is leading to non-optimized packaging solutions and delaying the introduction of technology.

• Improvement in the productivity of design, test, and modeling software is becoming critical throughout the supply chain.

• There needs to be an increased emphasis on “DfX” to aid the EMS firms in reducing cost and accelerating new product introduction.

• The mechanisms for cooperation between industries, and among researchers working in all advanced technologies, must be strengthened. Cooperation between OEMs, EMS firms, and component suppliers is needed to focus on the right technology and to find a way to deploy it in a timely manner.

• Disruptive technology offers opportunity for innovation. In order to ensure success, the supply chain must be willing to invest with a long-term perspective in mind. 

Identified Gaps in Materials, Packaging, and Sensors
Increasing the OEM focus on time-to-market and the complexity of emerging technology will require significant development and investment in design tool infrastructure. The following areas, in design, need increased research and development:

• Mechanics and reliability modeling

• Thermal and thermo-fluid simulation

• Co-design of mechanical, thermal, and electrical performance of the entire chip, package, and associated heat removal structures.

• Simulation tools for nano devices and materials. Improved design tools for emerging technologies like embedded passives and optoelectronic PWBs.

• Integrated design and simulation tools for RF modules and devices.

• Electronics manufacturing simulation and modeling tools for the designer.

Two major strategic needs generate the recommendations in manufacturing technology; the miniaturization of products; and the need for simplified, next generation assembly processes. Other considerations include:

• Explore and demonstrate the application of low temperature and room temperature attachment technologies to the SMT assembly process, including biomimetic-based dry adhesive technology.

• Develop automated printing, dispensing, placement, and rework equipment capable of the pitch requirements for SiP package assembly at current process speeds.

• The ceramic substrate interconnection technology industry must make a conscious effort to adopt innovative technology to provide cost-effective electronic system solutions.

• Development of new approaches to organic substrate fabrication that address needs for dramatic increases in density, reduced process variability, improved electrical performance, and radical reductions in cost.

• Government, consortia, and academia need to focus research funding on final assembly manufacturing processes for the electronics industry. 

Materials development can be enhanced in several ways:

• A combination of materials and fabrication research is needed to support the development of monolithically integrated optics and electronics that take advantage of the electronics infrastructure.

• Technology development is needed in areas such as “optical solders” and board level wave-guides to enable more complex and higher density, board-level products.

• Low cost, higher thermal conductivity, packaging materials, such as adhesives, thermal pastes, and thermal spreaders.

• Next generation of solder materials to replace the high-cost/high-temperature silver-containing alloys.

• New interconnect technologies deploying nano-materials to support decreased pitch and increased interconnect frequencies.

• High-performance laminates that are competitively priced.

• Clearer specifications for new materials, which are supported by a broad base of customers, to increase market size and reduce the risk for materials R&D.

Energy and the environment are ongoing global concerns. Here are some findings from the 2007 Roadmap:

• Develop and implement scientific methodologies to assess true environmental impacts of materials and potential trade-offs of alternatives.

• Fund a multi-stakeholder project to do environmental LCA and economic analyses with the goal of identifying a preferred e-waste recovery and recycling system.

• The industry needs to be more involved in policy making on material restrictions so that policy makers understand the trade-offs inherent in material substitution.

• Develop cost-effective, energy-efficient power supplies.

System improvements include:

• Advanced cooling systems, such as high-performance heat pipe, thermoelectric cooling technology, and direct liquid cooling technology need to be developed.

• Fuel cell systems, lithium-metal/SPE technology, and thin-film batteries have the potential of providing very high energy density and specific energy. These technologies are recommended for further development on an R&D level.

iNEMI Projects to Close the Gaps
Based on the results of the iNEMI 2005 Innovation Leadership Forum, iNEMI selected three focus areas for projects: miniaturization, medical electronics, and energy and the environment. The following three sections give an example of projects established to address gaps in these focus areas.

Miniaturization
Warm Assembly Projects:

• Thermal excursions associated with mass reflow, which are typically used in SMT processes, present a reliability risk to temperature-sensitive components used in electronic assembly, especially with higher-temperature lead-free assembly processes.

• Low-temperature or room temperature assembly processes have the potential to improve field reliability, streamline manufacturing, and reduce cost.

• Some approaches offer the opportunity to increase I/O density, which could facilitate the future miniaturization of electronics assemblies.

The Board Assembly TIG is planning a series of projects to investigate “warm assembly.” The first effort to be organized as part of the Warm Assembly initiative is the Nano-Attach Project, which is looking into nano-attach techniques, such as nano-velcro and biomimetic dry adhesive. Both offer promising solutions.

Medical Electronics—Medical Components Reliability Specifications
Medical products increasingly rely on electronics for their functionality, and there are unique reliability and operating condition requirements for these components. A new project is working to develop testing and use condition guidelines to help assure reliability of electronic components used in medical applications. Leveraging industry knowledge and existing standards, the project team plans to create a minimum set of requirements for electronic components used in implanted or life-critical devices.

Energy and the Environment—Lead-Free Nano-Solder Project
This iNEMI effort is investigating the application of nanotechnology to suppress lead-free solder reflow temperature. Lead-free materials and products require the use of solders that have higher melting points than silver/lead solder and, therefore, require higher processing temperatures. Higher reflow temperatures can negatively affect product reliability, require tougher qualification requirements for components, and sometimes result in significant changes in manufacturing processes.

The goal of the iNEMI Lead-Free Nano-Solder Project is to research and develop a nano-solder paste that can effectively suppress the melting point temperature of lead-free solders. The team plans to demonstrate the feasibility of such a solution, and to demonstrate manufacturability and joint reliability. The project is planned as a four-phase effort:

1. Research, develop, and demonstrate a nano-solder paste;

2. Demonstrate manufacturability;

3. Demonstrate joint reliability; and

4. Develop/demonstrate manufacturing equipment.

This article attempts to highlight converging and emerging markets in the electronics industry. It also highlights emerging technologies and technology gaps that call for industry attention. iNEMI is establishing projects that will address a number of these identified gaps. However, we have also identified gaps in technology that may limit the growth of the electronics industry over the next decade. Given the limited resources that industry, academia, and governments can apply, it is crucial that we focus R&D efforts on these high priority knowledge gaps. iNEMI has published the 2007 iNEMI Research Priorities, which can be downloaded as a PDF from
 http://thor.inemi.org/webdownload/RI/iNEMI_2007_Research_Priorities.pdf.

We hope that the research community will study and utilize this document and set their agendas to match identified needs.

We wish to thank the more than 500 volunteers from the electronics industry who helped create the 2007 iNEMI Roadmap. We also welcome participation in the creation of the 2009 Roadmap, which we will begin working on in the fall of 2007. If you are interested in getting involved, please contact Chuck Richardson at chuck_richardson@inemi.org.

The article was written by R. C. Pfahl, Jr., vice president of operations, and James B. McElroy, CEO, of the International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (iNEMI), 2214 Rock Hill Road, Suite 110, Herndon, VA 20170, USA. For more information on iNEMI, visit www.inemi.org.

Editor’s note: Our senior analyst and writer, John MacWilliams, contributes substantial time and effort to the iNEMI Roadmap. He has been the technical working group chair for the iNEMI Connector Roadmap effort since 2000, and has been involved in U.S. manufacturing initiatives since 1990. John just returned from a month in Washington, where he studied advanced technology programs for the government.