Automotive Safety Systems:
The Last Bastion for Explosive Automotive Connector Market Growth
By Roger E. Rickey, Bishop & Associates Inc.

As the global economy continues to recover from the 2008-2009 recession, we anticipate the current automotive connector market will experience an annual growth rate of approximately 11.2%, as global vehicle production volumes are expected to grow from 55 million units in 2010 to approximately 86 million units in 2015.

During this same time window, the global market for automotive electronics is expected to grow 16.2% annually, from $134.4 billion in 2010 to $243.7 in 2015, due primarily to the explosive growth of automotive safety systems and components.

Unlike fuel economy and emission systems regulations, the safety systems growth phenomenon is unique in that global automakers and governments are united in pushing these innovations. Safety is in focus like never before, including the use of advanced driver assist systems (ADAS), adaptive cruise control, collision avoidance and mitigation, lane departure warning, side object detection, and driver monitoring. In 2009, four million ADAS units were included in North American cars, and it is forecasted that by 2017, total OEM ADAS will reach 30.7 million vehicles in North America, equating to a compound annual growth rate of 29% from 2009 to 2017.

In addition, both OEMs and suppliers are continuing to develop the next generation of automotive safety systems, including vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications, which are a portion of the U.S. Department of Transportation’s IntelliDrive project. The IntelliDrive project focuses on 82% of all crashes caused by unimpaired drivers, and it is expected to significantly reduce the number of fatalities and injuries that occur in crashes.

Projects such as IntelliDrive in the United States or CVIS in Europe are additional examples of automotive industry and governmental cooperation. Public demand for improved safety systems is also fueling the automotive connector market growth curve.

The main driver for improved automotive safety systems is to reduce the number of death and injuries caused by automobile accidents. A report from the World Health Organization estimates that approximately 1.2 million men, women, and children die in automobile accidents each year. The top five countries and their automobile-related death rates are as follows:

The report also notes that China’s automobile-related deaths have had an annual direct and indirect cost estimate of between $12 to 21 billion, or approximately 1.5% of China’s GNP.

From the origin of Ford’s “padded dash” passenger safety system introduced in 1956, to the introduction of seat belts in the mid-1960s, the introduction of automotive safety systems was relatively slow. ABS was introduced in 1971, and production air bags came into use in the mid 80s to early 90s.

During the past decade, both passive and active safety systems have been introduced at exponential rates and can be categorized by the following table:

Although all-encompassing automated car control systems will be not be available in the very near future, OEMs are making significant progress in developing safety programs that can control a vehicle if a driver suddenly becomes incapacitated due to falling asleep, or in the event of a medical emergency. By integrating GPS with camera and sensor systems to monitor its environment, a vehicle will be able to move around traffic or obstacles and stop on the highway’s shoulder without any input from the driver.

The good news is that all of the new automotive safety systems will require a significant number of incremental terminals and connectors, many with environmental sealing requirements. The future holds great promise for those compaines that have the capability to design and manufacture high quality, cost effective, automotive safety system terminal and connector products.

Roger E. Rickey, Market Director,
Automotive and Non-Auto Transportation, Bishop & Associates Inc.
Roger E. Rickey has more than 30 years experience in the automotive and electronics industries, including four years experience as plant manager with Chrysler Huntsville Electronics Division, a leading electronics manufacturer. Most recently, as president of R.E. Rickey & Associates Inc., he worked as an international management consultant with several Fortune 500 clients, including major automotive OEMs.

Rickey began his career in engineering with Ford Motor Co. and was chief engineer and director of engineering with United Technologies Automotive Products Division. He holds degrees from Eastern Michigan University and Southern Illinois University, and served as an officer with the U.S. Army in Vietnam. He holds two Bronze Star Medals and an Army Commendation Medal.

Reference Materials:
Key Trends in Global Auto-component Industry Frost & Sullivan
http://www.marketresearch.com/product/display.asp?productid=2528279
http://www.automotive-fleet.com/News/Story/2010/10/Advanced-Safety-Systems-Help-Reduce-Road-Deaths.aspx?interstitial=1
http://www.automotive-fleet.com/News/Story/2008/03/Study-Consumers-Want-New-Crash-Avoidance-Technologies.aspx
http://www.accidentattorneys.com/china-auto-acc-deaths.cfm