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Hasta la Vista, Baby!
By Arthur Visser, Bishop & Associates Inc.
“Hasta la vista, Baby.” Most of us will
recognize this catch-phrase as Arnold Schwarzenegger’s, from the 1991
movie, Terminator 2: Judgment Day. The Terminator is probably one
of the most well-known robots of the past two decades.
But outside of Hollywood, robots are real—and more useful than ever
imagined. They are becoming increasingly present in our daily lives and
perform so many tasks that they are often taken for granted. We do not
pay much attention to them unless they start to look and act like us—but
most real-world robots don’t resemble humans at all. What does Star
Wars robot R2-D2 have in common with other modern robots? His
non-human appearance. Most Hollywood robots look like humans, while most
industrial and service robots are purely functional and lack humanoid
features. Therefore, they are less noticeable in our daily lives.
Hollywood
Robots
Having said that, Japanese engineers have
created a walking, talking robot that pretty much looks like an
attractive human girl. This robot will make a special appearance in a
Tokyo fashion show and will go on sale for around $200,000. To see her
walk and talk, click here:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7946780.stm
An estimated 6.5 million robots are in use
on our planet already. Most of these are small, so-called service
robots, including robot lawn mowers and robot vacuum cleaners. Although
not always easy, due to a lack of definitions, it makes sense to
distinguish various types or classes of robots.
Types of robots by application:
Different types of robots can be classified depending on their use and
application.
-
Industrial Robots: Used in
an industrial environment and for manufacturing (e.g. welding and
painting applications in the automotive industry)
-
Service Robots: Used in
many domestic applications, from robotic wheelchairs to hovering
vacuums to pet robots; also referred to as Domestic Robots, if used
for personal use. Mobile service robots are also finding use in
manufacturing environments.
-
Scientific Robots: Used in
scientific experiments and space exploration (e.g. Mars Lander)
-
Entertainment Robots: Used
in domestic applications for entertainment purposes (e.g. Lego
Mindstorm, Sony’s Aibo robotic dog)
-
Information Robots: Used
to provide or search for information
-
Military Robots: Used in
military application (e.g. drones)
-
Mobile Robots: Also
referred to as Automated Guided Vehicles (AGVs)
-
Agricultural Robots: Used
for agricultural applications, such as picking apples, milking
animals, or shearing sheep
-
Tele-Robots: Used in
hazardous environments (explosion, radioactive, chemical) or for
dangerous experiments
-
Underwater Robots: Used to
build and/or maintain underwater systems (e.g. offshore oil
pipelines)
-
Medical Robots: Used for
medical purposes
Robots are also identified by their
characteristics, or more specifically, by their kinematics (spatial
movement), their control system (continuous or point-to-point), and
their drive (electrical, pneumatic, hydraulic). For our purposes, we
will concentrate on the industrial robot market and its meaning for the
connector industry.
(Tyco Electronics is a Gold Supplier of the annual FIRST Robotics
competition. FIRST (For Inspiration and Recognition of Science and
Technology) is a non-profit organization founded to inspire young
people’s interest and participation in science and technology.)
While the number of industrial robots used in manufacturing is still
increasing, the automation of logistic tasks is another major growth
area and will require more and more mobile robots. The number of service
robots used in manufacturing is expected to grow significantly in the
coming years.
Although an estimated 6.5 million robots “inhabit” our planet (Source:
IFR), the installed base of industrial robots is currently between 1-1.2
million. In 2007, 114,365 industrial robots were installed worldwide, a
growth of 3 percent over 2006 numbers. The total market value of these
robots grew by 11 percent, and is estimated at US$6 billion, excluding
peripherals, software, and systems engineering costs, which also
represents a large “peripheral market” to the robotics industry.
Domestic,
Industrial, and Scientific Robots
Care-O-botÒ
3 Fraunhofer Institute , Fanuc Industrial robot. and NASA’s Phoenix Mars
Lander
If we have a look at the number of
industrial robots as a percentage of
the number of factory
workers, then Japan takes the lead, with 310 robots per 10,000 workers. The
U.S. has 116 robots per 10,000 factory workers. By region, Western
Europe has the highest number of robots per 10,000 factory workers (i.e.
higher then North America or Southeast Asia).
Robots per 10,000
Factory Workers
2007
Robot Density per
10,000 Workers in the Automotive Industry
2007
Growth of Industrial
Robot Sales
2007 vs. 2006
(units)
The Robotics Industry Association (RIA)
reported, based on statistics from their members, that North American
companies ordered a total of 12,557 robots valued at $894.9 million in
2008, down from 15,856 robots valued at $1.07 billion in 2007. Including
overseas sales, North American companies sold 14,109 robots, for a total
value of $ 979.4 million. These numbers vary somewhat from IFR’s 2007
numbers due to differences in definitions and counting. What is
significant, however, is the drop in sales: a decline of 18 percent in
units and 15 percent in dollars over 2008.
RIA stated that orders in the automotive industry, traditionally the
largest market for robots, dropped by 37 percent in units in North
America in 2008. On the other hand, non-automotive orders grew by 9
percent in units, year-on-year, and for the first time, topped
automotive orders since RIA began collecting the numbers 25 years ago.
RIA estimates that about 186,000 robots are in use in the U.S.A. at the
moment. This is slightly higher than the IFR estimates, which are in the
range of 176,000, but this depends again on the methods and definitions
of calculating this usage.
Installed Base Industrial Robots 2007
Total: Approx. 1.0 million industrial robots
(Source: IFR)
From the RIA data, we can also deduct an
average cost per robot. For 2008, the average price for a robot comes to
$71,250, and about $67,500 per robot in 2007. Including overseas sales,
the average price of a robot is about $69,500.
According to the Society of Manufacturing Engineers, a working robot
workstation cost about $100,000 in 2003. That means, a cost reduction of
about 7 percent per year over the past five years, which corresponds
with their prediction that prices would come down by five to 10 percent
per year for a robot workstation.
The Japan Robot Association (JARA) reported that its members received a
total of ¥ 534.211 million in orders for robots in 2008, down from ¥
586.012 million in 2007 (a decrease of 8.8 percent). Of these orders, ¥
188.999 million, or 35 percent of the total, were orders for the
domestic market, and 65 percent for export overseas. Domestic demand was
down by 11.2 percent and overseas demand was down by 7.5 percent.
Summarizing all data for 2008, the first half of 2008 was good for the
robot manufacturers, with growth at 8 percent. In the second half of the
year, not surprisingly, the market slowed down dramatically, especially
in the automotive markets, traditionally the biggest market for
industrial robots. The result is a growth in units of just over 1
percent in 2008 compared to 2007.
Newly-Installed Industrial Robots by Region
2007-2008
If we take a closer look at the
application areas for industrial robots, it is clear that the automotive
industry and related industries represent the largest share, with almost
45 percent of all installed industrial robots. With the current slump in
the automotive sector and continued pressure on prices for industrial
robots, combined with innovative technologies and innovation from robot
manufacturers, this picture may actually change fairly soon and look
quite different in five to ten years from now. Using new navigation,
safety, and vision technology, this new generation of mobile (service)
robots is expected to become the main driver behind the growth of the
industrial robot market.
Where do our robots spend their time?
Estimated
Markets for Industrial Robots
2007
Connector Content
How does all this translate
into useful data for connector manufacturers?
Based on the type of robot, they generally have one or more of the
following connections:
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Motor power or connection
to motor
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Welding power—especially
on ones used in the automotive industry and other robotic welding
applications
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Sensor cable
-
Wrist I/O
connection—optional, based on type of robot
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Base/controller
connector—can have a mixture of power and signal
-
Electronic connectors for
control boards
D-subminiature connectors are still found on almost all
controllers/base units. Cables often have a circular connector at one
end and the D-subminiature on the other. Many robots also offer an
Ethernet (RJ45) connection, while newer models have a USB or fiber optic
connection. Japanese robot manufacturers often tend to specify parts
from Japanese connector manufacturers, and the European manufacturers
from European connector manufacturers.
Most leading robot manufacturers come from either Europe or Japan and
are listed below:
Types of connectors used:
-
Circular, military-style,
most with a bayonet coupling; manufacturers include JAE, ITT Cannon,
Souriau, and standard A/B-style 5015s
-
Circular industrial with
polarized insert; multiple contact and M8/M12 styles, particularly
on sensors
-
 Rectangular—Industrial
connectors, including HARTING Han™ and Weidmuller Rockstar™,
D-subminiatures, USB, industrial fiber optic, or IEEE 1394
connections on the control units, and power I/Os such as Tyco
Electronics’ MATE-N-LOCK™
-
Telecom—Industrial RJ45
types
-
Barrier and PCB terminal
blocks, manufacturers such as Weidmuller, Phoenix Contact, etc.
-
PCB
connectors—Board-to-cable and board-to-board types
The potential for connector manufacturers
in this industry is estimated at about $112 million for 2007 and $113
million in 2008. With a growing number of service robots expected to
enter the manufacturing work floor, this value is likely to rise in the
coming years, only temporarily held back by the current crisis.
Connector Market in the Robotic Sector
2007 and 2008
Connector Market by Region
2008E
The graph above clearly reflects that the
greatest potential for connector manufacturers with industrial robots is
found in Japan and Europe, followed by the U.S. and Southeast Asia
(Korea). China is still a small player when it comes to the use and
production of robots, which can partly be explained by the availability
of a large, cheap workforce and by the fact that it will take some years
to go through the learning curve and provide the required ROI for the
use, production, and development of industrial robots in highly
automated production environments.
For more information on robotics, visit International Robots, Vision &
Motion Control Show (June 9-11), Rosemont, IL, U.S.A.; International
Robot Exhibition 2009 (November 25-28), Tokyo Big Sight, Ariake, Japan;
www.robotics.org;
www.ifr.org;
www.jara.jp; and www.usfirst.org. |
Arthur
Visser
